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                MIRS, August 
				24, 2008
 Look for Michigan's overall high school graduation numbers to 
				drop as the state prepares to release its data next week based 
				on a new formula agreed upon by the National Governors 
				Association (NGA).
 
 "Some school districts will have a lower rate than in the past," 
				acknowledges Margaret ROPP, director of the Center for 
				Educational Performance & Information (CEPI).
 
 When asked if districts are concerned the lower rates could hurt 
				their funding, Ropp said graduation rates are just one of more 
				than 20 indicators for Annual Yearly Progress (AYP), which 
				impacts federal Title I funding.
 
 The new formula is expected to provide more accurate data, as 
				highlighted by the different rates reported by Michigan and 
				national studies, in which districts -- particularly Detroit 
				Public Schools -- fare far worse.
 
 Ropp said the new formula would make it impossible to compare 
				2007 data to be released next year to years previous. The 
				2005-06 school year state graduation rate was 85.75 percent.
 
 Michigan has adopted a four-year cohort graduation rate, along 
				with all 50 states. It is the 17th state to implement the 
				formula. Michigan has been planning to transition for five 
				years.
 
 Here's how it works. The clock starts ticking when a student 
				enters ninth grade and is expected to graduate in four years. 
				CEPI started tracking ninth graders during the 2003-04 school 
				year who would graduate in 2007. It takes into account students 
				who transfer in.
 
 The formula breaks students into four groups:
 
 - On-track graduate, who completes high school with a regular 
				diploma in four years or less.
 
 - Other completer, who earns a GED or reached special education 
				maximum age
 
 - Dropout, who left high school permanently or whose whereabouts 
				are unknown
 
 - Off-track graduated and continuing, who completed high school 
				with a regular diploma in more than four years or is still 
				continuing in school past four years
 
 The state will arrive at the four-year graduation rate by 
				dividing the number of on-track graduates by the cohort total. 
				So a district that had 1,254 graduates and a 1,443 cohort total 
				would have a graduation rate of 86.9 percent.
 
 Dropout rates are calculated by dividing dropouts by the cohort 
				total.
 
 The state also will calculate graduation rates by subgroups of 
				race/ethnicity, gender, race/ethnicity by gender, economically 
				disadvantaged, students with disabilities, migrant and limited 
				English proficiency.
 
 The old formula used one year of data to derive a four-year 
				estimated rate. It multiplied the four graduating class 
				retention rates together in a single year. Class retention rates 
				were determined by taking one graduation class at a time and 
				dividing the fall enrollment by the pervious fall's enrollment. 
				The average rate was multiplied by 100 to get the graduation 
				rate percentage.
 
                  
                
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